Shek,+N



Norman Shek

topic with accessible data drugs ---alcohol murder/crime
 * __Brainstorm__**

Under-age drinking relates to: ---marks ---depression ---other drugs

I'd be interested in looking for information about under age drinking and marks in high school. Stats on under age drinking would not be hard to find, and I could survey the students at Ancaster High to get a real representation of my topic. The survey would ask for grade, age, marks at midterm, amount/frequency of drinking...

__**Question**__ --->Does under-age drinking have a correlation with a student's mark in high school (specifically in the 2009-2010 school years at Ancaster High)?

Independent variable: Frequency of drinking / Amount of drinking Dependent Variable: Marks in high school

__**Hypothesis**__ ---> I think there will be a correlation between the amount/frequency of underage drinking and marks in high school. I think that the more frequently and greater amount a student drinks, the lower their average will be (strong negative correlation).

__**Background Information**__ --->Currently the legal drinking age in Canada is 19. This means that the minimum age a person can purchase or consume alcohol is 19. The legal drinking age was at one point 21, being lowered to 18 in 1971. This was then changed to 19 when there were complaints of too many high school students getting drunk. This law however is being overlooked by many adolescents. In 2007, a survey of student drug use in Ontario by the Center for Addiction and Mental Health found that 61% of high school students have consumed alcohol and 26% have reported binge drinking within a month before taking the survey.


 * __SURVEY__**

Questions asked:

__Data Management Survey__ Grade Age Midterm Mark 1) How important are school marks to you? 2) How much effort do you put into school? 3) Have you consumed alcohol before (Y/N)? _ (If your answer is NO, please ignore the rest of the survey) 4) How often do you drink? 5) How much alcohol do you consume each time?

<---Final Survey given to students

--->The data from the survey was collected from the students at Ancaster High. The sampling method used was a __Stratified Sample__. A percentage of each grade (9,10,11,12) was surveyed.
 * __Sampling Technique__**

Total number of students surveyed was 215. 64 grade nines. 37 grade tens. 61 grade elevens. 53 grade twelves.

---> Some bias from the survey collected could have been __Sampling Bias__ and __Response Bias__.
 * __Bias__**

Sampling Bias occurs when the sampling method does not reflect the characteristics of the population correctly. This could have happened as the number of students surveyed (sample size) was not large enough to produce a fully accurate representation. This bias could be fixed by increasing the number of students surveyed from each grade. On the day of the survey, a number of grade 10's were away on a trip. This resulted in a lower number of grade 10's who completed the survey.

Response Bias occurs when participants deliberately give false or misleading answers. Students were told teachers would not be viewing the results of each student and their answers would be anonymous. This would have prevented students from saying they have not consumed alcohol to avoid trouble. The reason there would have been response bias is because the surveys were completed in a class room environment. Students could have been completing surveys beside friends. Their results may have been not as accurate as students may answer that they drink a lot and frequently to appear "cool" to their friends. To eliminate this bias, surveys could have been completed in private, away from friends and teachers.

__**Plan**__ --->The main data used for this culminating task is gathered through a specific survey. This survey targets the population in question (Ancaster High 2009-2010).

__One Variable Analysis:__

-Mean, Median, Mode of the average for each grade -Standard Deviation of averages for each grade -Distribution of frequency of drinking in each grade -Distribution of amount of drinks in each grade

__Two Variable Analyses:__

Create Graphs for each grade on:

Frequency of drinking vs. Average Amount of drinks each time vs. Average

These 2 graphs will reveal whether the frequency of drink/amount of drinks have a correlation on a student's average.

__To calculate r value:__ Independent variables for each category are changed to a numeric value.

Frequency of drinking "none/rare" = 1 "occasionally" = 2 "frequent" = 3

Amount of drinks each sitting "light" = 1 "moderate" = 2 "heavy" = 3


 * __Results of the Survey__**

__Definitions:__

__Average__: mark at midterm

__Frequency__: number of times a student drank per year __None/Rare__: 1-6 times per year __Occasionally__: 7-24 times per year __Frequent:__ more than 24 times per year

__Amount__: number of drinks a student consumes each time __Light__: 1-2 drinks __Moderate__: 3-4 drinks __Heavy__: 5+ drinks


 * __Grade 9__**

Students Surveyed: 64 Mean: 79.1 Median: 81.5 Mode : 82

Highest Average: 96 Lowest Average: 38

__S.D.__

s=10.4
 * Frequency of Drinking vs. Average ||
 * None / Rare |||| 82.24 ||
 * Occasionally |||| 72.25 ||
 * Frequent |||| 61.5 ||

__Percentage of Students in each Frequency Group___

None - 46.9% (30 out of 64) Rare - 31.2% (20 out of 64) Occasionally - 12.5% (8 out of 64) Frequent - 9.4% (6 out of 64)



__Correlation Coefficient__ r = -0.63

__Linear Regression__ y = a x + b a = -10.3 b = 92.6

y = -10.3x + 92.6



Note: This graph shows the average of the students average in each category. R value is calculated through scatterplot with all marks.
 * Amount of drinks each time vs. Average ||
 * Light |||| 82.06 ||
 * Moderate |||| 71.31 ||
 * Heavy |||| 61 ||

__Percentage of Students in each Amount Group__

None(n/a) - 46.9% (30 out of 64) Light - 28.1% (18 out of 64) Moderate - 20.3% (13 out of 64) Heavy - 4.7% (3 out of 64)



__Correlation Coefficient__ r = -0.58

__Linear Regression__ y = a x + b a = -10.8 b = 93.0

y = -10.8x + 93.0



Note: This graph shows the average of the students average in each category. R value is calculated through scatterplot with all marks.

__Wrap Up (grade 9 section)__ ---> During this survey, 64 grade 9's were surveyed. 50 out of 64 (78.1%) of these students reported having consumed no alcohol before or very little. This put the majority of students into the none/rare category. The results of the frequency of alcohol consumption vs. average showed the average of the students in each category. This average declined as the frequency of alcohol grew. The amount of drinks each sitting vs. average also showed that as the amount of drinks each sitting grew, the average declined. The r value of the graphs were -0.63 and -0.58 both meaning a negative moderate correlation.


 * __Grade 10__**

Students Suveyed: 37 Mean: 81.7 Median: 84 Mode: 84

Highest Average: 95 Lowest Average: 45

__S.D.__

s=10.3
 * Frequency of Drinking vs. Average ||
 * None / Rare |||| 86 ||
 * Occasionally |||| 79.25 ||
 * Frequent |||| 73.38 ||

__Percentage of Students in each Frequency Group__

None - 18.9% (7 out of 37) Rare - 40.5% (15 out of 37) Occasionally - 21.6% (8 out of 37) Frequent - 21.6% (8 out of 37)



__Correlation Coefficient__ r = -0.58

__Linear Regression__ y = a x + b a = -7.5 b = 93.6

y = -7.5x + 93.6

Note: This graph shows the average of the students average in each category. R value is calculated through scatterplot with all marks.


 * Amount of drinks each time vs. Average ||
 * Light |||| 83.25 ||
 * Moderate |||| 84.17 ||
 * Heavy |||| 70.17 ||

__Percentage of Students in each Amount Group__

None(n/a) - 18.9% (7 out of 37) Light - 32.4% (12 out of 37) Moderate - 32.4% (12 out of 37) Heavy - 16.2% (6 out of 37)



__Correlation Coefficient__ r = -0.39

__Linear Regression__ y = a x + b a = -5.3 b = 90.3

y = -5.3x + 90.3

Note: This graph shows the average of the students average in each category. R value is calculated through scatterplot with all marks.

__Wrap up (grade 10 section)__: --->More students have in grade 10 have consumed alcohol than grade 9's. The results of the frequency of alcohol consumption vs average follows the same trend as the hypothesis with a r value of -0.58 (moderate negative). The amount of alcohol per sitting vs average does not follow the same pattern. Its r value is -0.39(still moderate negative but not as data is not as close together). This could make sense as the frequency of drinking means the more often the student is finding themselves distracted and attending "parties" to consume alcohol. While as the amount of drinks per sitting does not mean that the student drinks often but could just rarely drink heavily (binge drinking).


 * __Grade 11__**

Students Surveyed: 61 Mean: 79.5 Median: 80 Mode: 84

Highest Average: 97 Lowest Average: 57

__S.D.__

s=9.4


 * Frequency of Drinking vs. Average ||
 * None / Rare |||| 83.13 ||
 * Occasionally |||| 78.68 ||
 * Frequent |||| 72.46 ||

__Percentage of Students in each Frequency Group__

None - 14.8% (9 out of 61) Rare - 34.4% (21 out of 61) Occasionally - 31.1% (19 out of 61) Frequent - 21.3% (13 out of 61)



__Correlation Coefficient__ r = -0.47

__Linear Regression__ y = a x + b a = -5.6 b = 89.0

y = -5.6x + 89.0

Note: This graph shows the average of the students average in each category. R value is calculated through scatterplot with all marks.


 * Amount of drinks each time vs. Average ||
 * Light |||| 78.6 ||
 * Moderate |||| 77.32 ||
 * Heavy |||| 80.73 ||

__Percentage of Students in each Amount Group__

None(n/a) - 14.8% (9 out of 61) Light - 24.6% (15 out of 61) Moderate - 36.1% (22 out of 61) Heavy - 24.6% (15 out of 61)



__Correlation Coefficient__ r = -0.21

__Linear Regression__ y = a x + b a = -2.5 b = 84.2

y = -2.5x + 84.2

Note: This graph shows the average of the students average in each category. R value is calculated through scatterplot with all marks.

__Wrap up (grade 11)__ ---> Majority of students are now consuming alcohol occasionally or frequently. The freqency graph has an r value of -0.48 (moderate negative) and amount per sitting graph has an r value of -0.21(weak negative). This is similar to the grade 10's. The frequency of drinking shows more of a correlation with a students average while the amount they drink seem to have a weaker correlation with average. This seems to be the cause of binge drinking once in a while and drinking normally.


 * __Grade 12__**

Students Surveyed: 53 Mean: 75.6 Median: 77 Mode: 80

Highest Average: 92 Lowest Average: 39

__S.D.__

s=8.6


 * Frequency of Drinking vs. Average ||
 * None / Rare |||| 81.69 ||
 * Occasionally |||| 77.24 ||
 * Frequent |||| 69.25 ||

__Percentage of Students in each Frequency Group__

None - 13.2% (7 out of 53) Rare - 17.0% (9 out of 53) Occasionally - 32.1% (17 out of 53) Frequent - 37.7% (20 out of 53)



__Correlation Coefficient__ r = -0.61

__Linear Regression__ y = a x + b a = -6.3 b = 88.6

y = -6.3x + 88.6

Note: This graph shows the average of the students average in each category. R value is calculated through scatterplot with all marks.


 * Amount of drinks each time vs. Average ||
 * Light |||| 77.86 ||
 * Moderate |||| 76.27 ||
 * Heavy |||| 73.04 ||

__Percentage of Students in each Amount Group__

None(n/a) - 13.2% (7 out of 53) Light - 13.2% (7 out of 53) Moderate - 28.3% (15 out of 53) Heavy - 45.3% (24 out of 53)



__Correlation Coefficient__ r = -0.30

__Linear Regression__ y = a x + b a = -3.1 b = 82.3

y = -3.1x + 82.3

Note: This graph shows the average of the students average in each category. R value is calculated through scatterplot with all marks.

__Wrap up (grade 12 section)__ ---> Like the past 2 sections, the correlation between the frequency of drinking and marks are stronger than the correlation between the amount of drinks vs marks. The 2 r values are -0.61 (moderate negative) and -0.30 (weakk negative).

<-- ALL RESULTS FROM SURVEY ARE FOUND HERE


 * __Conclusions__**:

--->My hypothesis was not accurate. I had thought that a student's marks would go down as they drank more frequently and more alcohol per sitting both having a strong negative correlation. My results from the survey of Ancaster High Students in grades 9-12 in the year 2009-2010 did not reflect these hypothesis. The frequency of alcohol consumption did have a moderate negative correlation with a students marks. As the frequency of drinking increased, the average of the students in that category decreased. The amount of alcohol per sitting did not have as strong as a correlation with a students marks, with both the "light" amount of drinks in grade 10 and 11 not having the highest mark averages. This is reasonable as the frequency a student drinks means the more oftenly they are distracted from school by drinking. The amount a student drinks does not have the same correlation as a student who drinks heavily does not necessarily mean they drink often either. Most likely, these results show that students who drink heavily do not drink frequently but drink heavily to become intoxicated at parties. The final results are that the frequency of alcohol consumption has a moderate negative relationship with a student's marks while the amount a student drinks per sitting do not have as strong a correlation.

__**Source**__

.gc.ca/pubBowlby, G. (n.d.). //Provincial drop-out rates - trends and consequences//. Retrieved from http://www.statcan/81-004-x/2005004/8984-eng.htm#c

Hanson, D. (2007). //Underage drinking rates//. Retrieved from []

Hotton, T., & Haans, D. (2004). //Alcohol and drug use in early adolescence//. Retrieved from []

Leslie, K. (2008, April 1). Drinking age to stay at 19, McGuinty says. Retrieved from []