MacMillan,+J

I am going to look into the rate of murders compared to an increase in temperature from the average temperature. This information will be easy to find. There is a large amount of data concerning both temperature in a given area and murder in a given area.
 * __Proposal__**

Does an increase from the average temperature for an area effect the number of murders? **
 * __Question__

I believe that the number of murders (the dependent variable) willincrease in a region as the average yearly temperature (independent variable) increases. I believe that this will happen because of how the temperature of the air effects the mood of the people experiencing it. If a year is on average more hot then by that theory it should have more murders than a year that is cooler. From my experience the higher the temperature the more irritable the person experiencing said heat will be. **
 * __Hypothesis__

Raw Data



Michigan
 * year || Murder number || Murder number per 100 000 people |||| Temperature (farenheit) ||
 * 1994 || 927 || 9.2 |||| 46.0 ||
 * 1995 || 808 || 8.5 |||| 46.3 ||
 * 1996 || 722 || 7.5 |||| 44.9 ||
 * 1997 || 759 || 7.8 |||| 45.8 ||
 * 1998 || 721 || 7.3 |||| 50.6 ||
 * 1999 || 695 || 7.0 |||| 48.4 ||
 * 2000 || 669 || 6.7 |||| 47.6 ||
 * 2001 || 672 |||| 6.7 || 49.2 ||
 * 2002 || 678 |||| 6.7 || 47.4 ||
 * 2003 || 617 |||| 6.1 || 45.9 ||
 * 2004 || 643 |||| 6.4 || 46.4 ||
 * 2005 || 616 |||| 6.1 || 47.5 ||



One variable analysis: Mean median, mode and standard deviation of murders in michigan vs the temperature for the years they were committed the mean is 47.1333_
 * Temperature || Midpoint || frequency || Cumulative frequency || fimi ||
 * 44.55 – 45.55 || 45.05 || 1 || 1 || 45.05 ||
 * 45.55 – 46.55 || 46.05 || 5 || 6 || 230.25 ||
 * 46.55 – 47.55 || 47.05 || 2 || 8 || 94.1 ||
 * 47.55 – 48.55 || 48.05 || 2 || 10 || 96.1 ||
 * 48.55 – 49.55 || 49.05 || 1 || 11 || 49.05 ||
 * 49.55 – 50.55 || 50.05 || 0 || 11 || 0 ||
 * 50.55 – 51.55 || 51.05 || 1 || 12 || 51.05 ||
 * total ||  || 12 ||   || 565.6 ||

the median is approximately 46.55

total: 29.07 standard deviation = 29.07 / 12 standard deviation = 2.4
 * X || x-u || (x-u)^2 ||
 * 46.0 || -1.133 || 1.283 ||
 * 46.3 || -.0833 || 0.693 ||
 * 44.9 || -2.233 || 4.941 ||
 * 45.8 || -1.333 || 1.776 ||
 * 50.6 || 3.467 || 12.020 ||
 * 48.4 || 1.267 || 1.605 ||
 * 47.6 || 0.467 || 0.218 ||
 * 49.2 || 2.067 || 4.272 ||
 * 47.4 || 0.267 || 0.071 ||
 * 45.9 || -1.233 || 1.520 ||
 * 46.4 || -0.733 || 0.537 ||
 * 47.5 || 0.367 || 0.134 ||

Two variable analysis

THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT IS -0.333 this makes it a weak negative correlation Bias Due to the fact that murders are not always caught there may be a strong measurement bias. Also due to that Murders are not as plentiful as they could be, there may be a small sampling bias.
 * y || x || y^2 || x^2 || XY ||
 * 46.00 || 927 || 2116 || 859329 || 42642 ||
 * 46.30 || 808 || 2143.69 || 652864 || 37410.4 ||
 * 44.90 || 722 || 2016.01 || 521284 || 32417.8 ||
 * 45.80 || 759 || 2097.64 || 576081 || 34762.2 ||
 * 50.60 || 721 || 2560.36 || 519841 || 36482.6 ||
 * 48.40 || 695 || 2342.56 || 483025 || 33638 ||
 * 47.60 || 669 || 2265.76 || 447561 || 31844.4 ||
 * 49.20 || 672 || 2420.64 || 451584 || 33062.4 ||
 * 47.40 || 678 || 2246.76 || 459684 || 32137.2 ||
 * 45.90 || 617 || 2106.81 || 380689 || 28320.3 ||
 * 46.40 || 643 || 2152.96 || 413449 || 29835.2 ||
 * 47.50 || 616 || 2256.25 || 379456 || 29260 ||
 * 566.00 || 8527 || 26725.44 || 6144847 || 401812.5 ||
 * 566.00 || 8527 || 26725.44 || 6144847 || 401812.5 ||

Conclusion: From the data presented here my hypothesis has been proven wrong. The temperature per year does not seem to effect people in the way that i thought it would. If it affects peoples choice to murder it would infact, in this case inversely effect their decision to kill. **__Brainstorming__** Season vs number of murders Temperature of area vs number of murders average temperature of country vs murders per capita temperature difference from average temperature vs number of murders


 * __Sources__

Anderson, C. A., Bushman, B. J., & Groom, R. W. (1997, November 6). //Hot Years and Serious and Deadly Assault: Empirical Tests of the Heat Hypothesis//. Retrieved November 8, 2009, from http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/faculty/caa/abstracts/1995-1999/97ABG.PDF

//climate.geo//. (1990). Retrieved January 3, 2010, from http://climate.geo.msu.edu/mi-map.html Federal Bureau of Investigations. (1995). Retrieved January 2, 2010, from http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm Federal Bureau of Investigations. (1996). Retrieved January 2, 2010 Federal Bureau of Investigations. (1997). Retrieved January 2, 2010 Federal Bureau of Investigations. (1998). Retrieved January 2, 2010 Federal Bureau of Investigations. (1999). Retrieved January 2, 2010 Federal Bureau of Investigations. (2000). Retrieved January 2, 2010 Federal Bureau of Investigations. (2001). Retrieved January 2, 2010 Federal Bureau of Investigations. (2002). Retrieved January 2, 2010 Federal Bureau of Investigations. (2003). Retrieved January 2, 2010 Federal Bureau of Investigations. (2004). Retrieved January 2, 2010 Federal Bureau of Investigations. (2005). Retrieved January 2, 2010

//Murder and Temperature// (2008, May 4). Retrieved November 8, 2009, from http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/05/murder-and-temperature.html **