Urie,+E







**INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND INFORMATION:**
With our current economy recovering from a recession, one of the best ways to help stimulate our economy is to get people spending money. Tourism brings a lot of money into Canada. However, when gas prices are high the cost of traveling increases. As a result, the money that is made from tourism could decline since people do not want to spend the money on gas traveling. I choose this topic for my wiki because I was interested in discovering whether the high cost of gas affects the rate at which people travel.

**QUESTION:**
The question that I am interested in answering is whether there is a strong correlation between the price of gas, acting as the independent variable, and travel and tourism within Canada, being the dependent variable. I will be researching data from the time frame of 1998 till 2008?

**HYPOTHESIS:**
My hypothesis is that the higher the price of gas in Canada, the less that citizens will travel within Canada because of the costs of gas involved. Consequently, I estimate that when gas prices are lower, Canada will have higher rates of travel and tourism resulting in a wealthier province and stronger economy.

Below is a link to the power point presentation that I made of my brainstorming, hypothesis, raw data and bibliography.



**DATA FOR THE PROJECT:**
Here are four polls taken from ontariogasprices.com from an average of the year 2008 regarding how the price of gas would affect individuals travel.

This first poll concludes that high gasoline prices will affect and individuals summer travel plans by 40% of the individuals who participated answering Yes - A lot.

At 75% of the respondents answering Yes, in this second poll it can be concluded that a huge majority of individuals plan to drive less this summer due to high gasoline prices.

The third poll states that only 20% of participants Easter weekend travel plans were affected by gas prices. More individuals, at 51%, answered that it did not impact them at all.

In this last poll, most individuals answered that they did not have travel plans over the holidays and therefore, were not affected by the high prices of gasoline.

**BIAS:**
Within these above four polls there is a probability of bias.


 * Sampling Bias** A sampling bias could have occurred since the sampling frame is only of members or individuals who visit the website. This does not reflect the characteristics of the population of individuals who drive vehicles. Many individuals could own or drive a car, but not participate in these polls which would eliminate them from the results. In addition, since this poll is taken online, the individuals could not even own or drive a car and still participate in survey. This leads to less accurate results in the data. The sampling method is the cause of the problem and could be fixed by asking individuals to participate in the poll when they go to fill up their car with gas.


 * Response Bias** This could have occurred by participants in the poll deliberately give false or misleading answers. Respondents may want to influence results or they may be afraid or embarrassed to answer questions about gasoline and their driving habits honestly. By the Respondents purposely altering their response the data would be less accurate.

**SAMPLING TECHNIQUES:**

 * Voluntary Response Sample** The sampling technique that was used for these polls was a Voluntary Response Sample. The polls were taken from the site ontariogasprices.com It is a Voluntary Response Sample because the participation in this poll is at the discretion or initiative of the respondent. However, the population for this poll is only members of the site. Any member of the site can log in and participate in the poll. The results can be skewed.


 * Vehicles and Distance Traveled in Canada, by type of vehicle**



The top obstacle of travel remains high gasoline prices (57.8%), personal financial reasons (49.5%) and expensive airfare (35.2%) In all cases up significantly since the survey was first conducted in July 2006.



From this survey:


 * 29.8% of respondents say they will spend less for leisure in the next 12 months. This figure has more than doubled from just six months earlier.
 * Nearly one in four (23.6%) report that in the past 12 months they have taken a “staycation”, a vacation spent at home, in response to gasoline prices.
 * Additionally, 28.5% say they plan to take a "staycation" in the next 12 months.
 * The average number of trips the average person has taken in the past 12 months has fallen 7.3% to 5.1%



About 2,700 Quebecers responded to a web based survey in May by CAA- Quebec that asked about the impact of high gas prices on driving habits and summer vacation plans.



In 2004, same-day and overnight visitors spent over $1.7 billion on tourism-related expenditures in the North, including lodging, food and beverages, transportation, entertainment, and retail. Visitors from within Ontario accounted for over 50% of all tourism related expenditures, and the U.S. accounted for 36%.



Of the over 37 million overnight visits in Ontario in 2004, approximately 5.7 million (13.3 percent) were to Northern Ontario. Of the main purposes cited for these visits:

Northern Ontario attracts 20 percent of Canadian outdoor enthusiasts who travel within Ontario. Hunting and fishing account for 3.8 million overnight person visits to Ontario with close to 40 percent of these visitors coming to Northern Ontario. American visitors are twice as likely to visit to hunt or fish (46 percent) than Canadian visitors (22 percent).
 * 53 percent were made for pleasure purposes
 * 30 percent were to visit friends and relatives
 * 8 percent were for business
 * 9 percent were for personal or other purposes.



Tourism is a significant component of Northern Ontario’s economy. In 2004, 9.8 million visitors to Northern Ontario accounted for $1.7 billion in visitor expenditures in the tourism industry. Canada is Northern Ontario’s largest tourism market accounting for close to 80 percent of visitors to the region. Twenty percent of visitors to Ontario are from the United States. American visitors are primarily from the Great Lakes Border States. One percent of visitors are from other international countries.











PLAN FOR ONE VARIABLE ANALYSIS WITH MY DATA:
My plan for one variable analysis is to make a Frequency Histogram of the price of gas vs. the year. I will also make a Frequency Histogram of the travel and tourism rates vs. the year. In this case, my data would be considered continuous because both gas prices and travel and tourism rates can have any value within a given range.

In addition, the mean, median and mode for the data that I have collected in regards to the various prices of gas over the years and the various travel and tourism rates could be found.

I could also look into the deviation to research the difference between an individual value for the price of gas or travel and tourism rates. The spread in the data can be concluded from the size of the deviation.

**(Correlating the Two Variables)**
First, I will create scatter plots to illustrate the relationship between the prices of gas vs. travel and tourism rates. I will create a number of graphs for the time frames between 1998 till 2008.

Second, I will describe the correlation between the price of gas, (independent variable) and the travel and tourism rates (dependent variable) to see what type of relationship is present such as, strong positive to weak negative.

Third, I will draw a line of best fit on my scatter plots.

Next, I will calculate the correlation coefficient. I will try to have a lot of points on my scatter plots to obtain greater accuracy/reliability.

I will then find the equation for the line of best fit.

Finally, I will come to conclusions based on my results.

==

__**INDEPENDENT VARIABLE: GAS PRICES**__
I created a scatter plot for the average price of gasoline in each year from 1998 till 2009 using Microsoft Office Excel.



I noticed that the line seemed to be linear so I drew a line of best fit in red below.



The data that I used when creating the graphs above came from various different prices of gas throughout each year, taken from the Statistics Canada website. I calculated the mean value for the price of gas each year and used that value in my scatter plots. As Shown Below.

Formula for Calculating Mean:












Median
In addition, I calculated the Median for the Price of Gas over the 12 year period.

Median Value = 2003 + 2004/2 = 80.69230769 + 89.05789474/2 = 84.87510122 = 84.88

Therefore, the median price of gas over the 12 year period was approximately 84.88 cents.

Mode
I also calculated the mode.

The gas price that occurred the most often over the 12 year period was 93.9 cents.

**__DEPENDENT VARIABLE: TOURISM SPENDING__**


I also created a scatter plot for the average amount of tourism spending in each year from 1998 till 2008 using Microsoft Office Excel.



I drew a line of best fit in red.



==






 * Classifying the relationship between X and Y.**

The relationship between the Price of Gas and Tourism Spending appears to be strong to moderate positive.

**The Correlation Coefficient**
I will calculate the correlation coefficient to get a measure of the linear relationship between the price of gas and tourism spending. This will show me how close the points cluster around the line of best fit.

Formula for Correlation Coefficient



Computing the Correlation Coefficient:

r = __11(56464.07) - (932.55695)(642)__ √ [11(83840.66) - (932.55695)^2] [11(38396) - (642)^2]

r = __22403.2081__ √ (952584.79501)(10192)

r = __22403.2081__ √ 535944230.7

r = 0.967721551

r = 0.97

The correlation coefficient is approximately 0.97 Therefore, it can be concluded that the linear correlation is strong positive.

**Linear Regression**
Equation of the line of best fit.

Find a



a = __11(56464.07) - (932.55695)(642)__ 11(83840.66) - (932.55695)^2

a = __22403.2081__ (952584.79501)

a = 0.0235

a = 0.024

Find b



b = ( 642/11 ) - 0.024 ( 932.55695/11 )

b = 56.34

y = 0.024x + 56.34
Outliers were not present on my scatter plot of Gas Prices vs. Tourism Spending so there was no need to exclude any values from my calculations.



From my calculations it can be concluded that there is a strong positive correlation between the Price of Gas and Tourism spending in Canada. However, there are many factors that can be responsible for this strong correlation that need to be considered.

1) Cause and Effect Relationship

 * A change in the variable of x (gas prices) will produce a change in y (tourism spending).
 * Very evident in physical process.
 * In my data, increasing the price of gas would cause and increase in tourism spending because the tourists will have to buy gas to travel in Canada and the higher price of gas will lead to more money coming in from gas.

2) Common Cause Factor

 * External variable causes two variables to change in the same way.
 * Factors such as inflation can cause the price of both to increase.
 * In addition, a persons financial status due to economic times causes increases or decreases in spending.

3) Reverse Cause and Effect Relationship

 * Dependent and independent variables are reversed, in the process of establishing cause.
 * The price of gas determines the rate of tourism spending, however, when tourism spending is high, the country could increase the price of gas.

4) Accidental Relationship

 * Correlation exists without any causal relationship, it just happens by random chance.
 * The price of gas could just have accidentally has a positive strong correlation with tourism spending by coincidence.

BIBLIOGRAPHY:
I believe the sources that I have included are reliable sources. Most of my information came from Statistics Canada which is a government site. Johnson, N. (2008, June 7). //Gas prices hitting tourism sector//. Retrieved December 3, 2009, from []

Ontario Gas Prices. (2008//). Did the high prices of gasoline affect your holiday plans? // Retrieved December 3, 2009, from []

Ontario Gas Prices. (2008). // Do you plan to do less driving this summer due to the high gasoline prices? // Retrieved December 3, 2009, []

Ontario Gas Prices. (2008). // Did gas prices affect your Easter weekend travel plans? // Retrieved December 3, 2009, []

Ontario Gas Prices. (2008). // Willl high gasoline prices effect your summer travel plans. // Retrieved December 3, 2009, []

Statistics Canada. (2008, March 27). //National Tourism Indicators//. Retrieved November 4, 2009, from []

// Statistics Canada. //(2009, September 16). //Vehicles and distance travelled in Canada, by type of vehicle// Retrieved November 5, 2009, from []

// Statistics Canada. //(2009, September 16). //Canadian Vehicle Survey// Retrieved November 5, 2009, from []

// Statistics Canada. //(2008, March 23). //Consumer prices: The year 2008 in review// Retrieved November 5, 2009, from []

Statistics Canada. (2009, August 27). //Travellers to Canada by country of origin, top 15 countries of origin//. Retrieved December 2, 2009, from []

Statistics Canada. (2009, August 27). //Travellers to Canada by United States state of origin, top 15 states of origin//. Retrieved December 2, 2009, from []

Statistics Canada. (2006, April 6). //Trips by Canadians in Canada, by province and territory//. Retrieved December 3, 2009, from []

Vocus PRW Holdings, LLC. (2008, June 1). //High Price of Fuel May Benefit Ontario Tourism Operators//. Retrieved November 4, 2009, from []